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Climatesense-norpag

The Rules of the Lebensraum game with no CO2 Climate Crisis.
Publish: Thu 13 Oct 2022 - 3:27 PM
Website: Climatesense-norpag
Twitter: @norpag
Source: View Original

SUMMARY

1.The earth has now reached a population level which generated a battle for Lebensraum, i.e. energy and food resources, when Russia invaded Crimea. The associated covid pandemic, and global poverty and income disparity increases, threaten the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. During the last major influenza epidemic in 1919 world population was 1.9 billion. It is now 7.8 billion+/ - an approximate four fold increase.

The IPCC and UNFCCC  post modern science establishment's "consensus" is that a modelled future increase in CO2 levels is the main threat to human civilization. This is an egregious error of scientific judgement.  A Millennial Solar " Activity" Peak at 1991  correlates with the Millennial Temperature Peak at 2003/4 with a 12/13 year delay because of the thermal inertia of the oceans. Earth has now entered a general cooling trend which will last for the next 700+/- years.
Because of the areal distribution and variability in the energy density of energy resources and the varying per capita use of energy in different countries, international power relationships have been transformed. The global free trade system and global supply chains have been disrupted.

Additionally, the worlds richest and most easily accessible key mineral deposits were mined first and the lower quality resources which remain in the 21st century are distributed without regard to national boundaries and demand. As population grows inflation inevitably skyrockets. War between states and violent conflicts between tribes and religious groups within states are multiplying.

2 The Millennial Temperature Cycle Peak.

Latest Data (1) https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt

Global     Temp Data 2003/12  Anomaly 0.26 :  2022/9 Anomaly  0.24  Net cooling for 19 years

Tropics     Temp Data 2004/01  Anomaly 0.22 :  2022/9 Anomaly  0.03  Net cooling for 19 years.

USA 48     Temp Data 2004/03 Anomaly 1.32  :  2022/9 Anomaly  0.59  Net cooling for 19 years.

Earth’s climate is the result of resonances and beats between the phases of natural cyclic processes of varying wavelengths and amplitudes. At all scales, including the scale of the solar planetary system, sub-sets of oscillating systems develop synchronous behaviors which then produce changing patterns of periodicities in time and space in the emergent temperature data. The periodicities pertinent to current estimates of future global temperature change fall into two main categories:

a) The orbital long wave Milankovitch eccentricity, obliquity and precession cycles. These control the glacial and interglacial periodicities and the amplitudes of the corresponding  global temperature cycles. 
b)  Solar activity cycles with multi-millennial, millennial, centennial and decadal time scales. 

The most prominent solar activity and temperature  cycles  are : Schwab-11+/-years ; Hale-22 +/-years ; 3 x the Jupiter/Saturn lap cycle  60 years +/- :; Gleissberg 88+/- ;  de Vries - 210 years+/-; Millennial- 960-1020 +/-. (2)

 The Oulu Galactic Ray Count is used in this paper  as the "solar activity " proxy which integrates changes in Solar Magnetic field strength, Total Solar Insolation , Extreme Ultra Violet radiation, Interplanetary Magnetic Field strength, Solar Wind density and velocity, Coronal Mass Ejections, proton events, ozone levels and  the geomagnetic Bz sign.  Changes in the GCR neutron count proxy source  causes concomitant modulations in cloud cover and thus albedo. (Iris effect)

Eschenbach 2010 (3) introduced “The Thunderstorm Thermostat Hypothesis - how Clouds and Thunderstorms Control the Earth’s Temperature”. 

Eschenbach  2020(4) in https://whatsupwiththat.com/2020/01/07/drying-the-sky  uses empirical data from the inter- tropical buoy system to  provide a description of this system of self-organized criticality. Energy flow from the sun into and then out of the ocean- water interface in the Intertropical Convergence Zone  results in a convective  water vapor buoyancy effect and a large increase in  OLR This begins when ocean temperatures surpass the locally critical sea surface temperature to produce Rayleigh - Bernard convective heat transfer.

 Short term deviations from the solar activity and temperature  cycles are driven by ENSO events and volcanic activity.



F
ig 1 C
orrelation of the last 5 Oulu neutron cycles and trends with the Hadsst3 temperature          trends and the 300 mb Specific Humidity. ( 5,6 )        

The Oulu Cosmic Ray count in Fig.1C shows the decrease in solar activity since the 1991/92 Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point and peak There is a significant secular drop to a lower solar activity base level post 2007+/- and a new solar activity minimum late in 2009.  In Figure 1 short term temperature spikes are colored orange and are closely correlated to El NinosThe hadsst3gl temperature anomaly at 2037 is forecast to be + 0.05. 



Fig.2 Northern Hemisphere 2000 year temperature reconstruction and a Millennial Temperature Turning Point. (MTTP). (7)

Because of the data quality, record length and methods used, the NH Christiansen et al 2012 series was selected as the "type reconstruction" to represent the NH trends. The de Vries, Maunder, Sporer  and Wolf minima are noted. Important volcanic cooling events are marked with a V.  An MTTP  occurs at about 990. The Millennial cycles are asymmetric with a 700+/- year down-leg and a 300 +/- year up-leg.

Fig 3  The NRLTSI2 Solar Activity - CET Relationship 1600- Present (8,9,10)

In Fig.3 the Roth & Joos Cosmogenic Index (CI) is used as the emergent proxy for the solar activity driver of the resulting emergent global and NH temperature data.

The effect on observed emergent behaviors i.e. global temperature trends, of the combined effect of these solar and GCR drivers will vary non-linearly depending on the particular phases of the eccentricity, obliquity and precession orbital cycles at any particular time.

Figure 3 shows an increase in CI of about 2 W/m 2 from the Maunder minimum to the 1991 activity peak. This increase, together with the other solar "activity" variations modulate the earth’s temperature and albedo via the GR flux and varying cloud cover.

The emergent temperature time series trends of the combined orbital, solar and GCR drivers also reflect turning points, changes of state and important threshold effects created by the interactions of the underlying physical processes. These exogenous forcings are also simultaneously modulated by changes in the earth’s magnetic field and length of day.

The temperature increase since the 1680s is due to the up- leg in the natural solar " activity" Millennial cycle as shown by Lean 2018 "Estimating Solar Irradiance Since 850 AD" (ibid)  Figure 3 also shows the correlation between the CI driver and the Central England Seasonal Temperatures. (ibid). The 1650 – 1700 (Maunder), 1810 - 20 (de Vries/Dalton), and the 1890-1900 (Gleissberg) minima are obvious. 
These temperature changes correlate very well with the changes in energy flow from the sun shown in Figure 1 C  without any measurable effect of C02.There is  NO CO2 Caused Climate Crisis.


 3.Arctic Sea Ice Trends.

After reaching the minimum on September 18 2022, Arctic sea ice extent has been steadily increasing. With the passage of the equinox, the sun has set at the North Pole. September average ice extent ended up tying with 2010 for eleventh lowest in the satellite record. 1.30 million square kilometers (502,000 square miles) above the record minimum set in 2012. (11)

4. Arctic Sea ice volume.

Average Arctic sea ice volume in September 2022 was 5,200 km3. This value is the 10th lowest on record for September. (12)



5. CO2 -Temperature and Climate.

The whole COP Net Zero meme is founded on the flawed assumptions and algorithms which produced the IPCC- UNFCCC model forecasts of coming dangerous temperature increases.

The "consensus"  IPCC models make the fundamental error of ignoring the long- term decline in solar activity and temperature following the Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point and activity peak which was reached in 1990/91 as shown in Figure 1

The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is .058% by weight.  That is one 1,720th of the whole. It is inconceivable thermodynamically that such a tiny tail could wag so big a dog. (13)

 Stallinga 2020 (14) concludes: " The atmosphere is close to thermodynamic equilibrium and based on that we...…… find that the alleged greenhouse effect cannot explain the empirical data—orders of magnitude are missing. ……Henry’s Law—outgassing of oceans—easily can explain all observed phenomena.” CO2 levels follow temperature changes. CO2 is the dependent variable and there is no calculable consistent relationship between the two. The uncertainties and wide range of out-comes of model calculations of climate radiative forcing (RF) arise from the improbable basic assumption that anthropogenic CO2 is the major controller of global temperatures.
 Miskolczi 2014 (15) in “The greenhouse effect and the Infrared Radiative Structure of the Earth's Atmosphere “says "The stability and natural fluctuations of the global average surface temperature of the heterogeneous system are ultimately determined by the phase changes of water.”
 Also See  AleksandrZhitomirskiy2022 Absorption of heat and the greenhouse gas effect. https://independent.academia.edu/AleksandrZhitomirskiy  (16)  which says:
"The molar heat capacities of the main greenhouse and non-greenhouse gases are of the same order of magnitude. Given the low concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, their contribution to temperature change is below the measurement error. It seems that the role of various gases in the absorption of heat by the atmosphere is determined not by the ability of the gas to absorb infrared radiation, but by its heat capacity and concentration.  "   

Zaichun Zhul et al 2016 (17) in Greening of the Earth and its drivers report “a persistent and widespread increase of growing season integrated Leaf Area Index (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area from 1982 - 2009. ………. C02 fertilization effects explain 70% of the observed greening trend.”
 Policies which limit CO2 emissions or even worse sequester CO2 in a quixotic attempt to greenwash or mitigate these natural cycles would decrease agricultural food production and are antithetical to the goals of feeding the increasing population and bringing people out of poverty.
 
The tropical rain forests and tropical oceans are the main source of the atmosphere's water vapor and the rainfall essential to life and agriculture on land. Potable and agricultural water supplies are now stretched to their limits in many areas because of the demographics of global population increase. Temperature limits and targets as set in the Paris Accords to ameliorate future temperatures are completely useless when formulating policies relative to adaptation to the actual real world problems. These require more local inputs for particular regional ecosystems delineated by coastlines,  major river basins and mountain range limited intra-continental divides.

6. Predictions.

a) Short Term.- https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2010/2010.02370.pdf

Svalgaard, (18) Says "That solar cycle prediction is still in its infancy is borne out by the extreme range of predictions of Cycle 25...........With the wide spread (from 50 ,(Kitiashvili, 2020), to 233,(McIntosh et al)), someone or even several ones are bound to be correct,".. 

In Fig 1 D  above  Kitiashvili,I 2020 (19)  estimated that Solar Cycle 25 will start after the 2020 solar minimum  and will be weaker than Cycle 24.The maximum of Cycle 25 solar activity in this paper is predicted to be at  2024/25 with a sunspot number of about 50 +/- 15. The correlative HadSST3gl anomaly is at 2037.The intervening solar activity minimum would be at 2020.

The Oulu Galactic Ray Count is a much more useful proxy for the Solar "Activity" climate driver .The  1991 Solar Activity Peak and the key correlation with the secular drop in the GR count after 2007 are very obvious in Figure 1 C .The change in slope and projection beyond 2016 are related to that basic post 2007 baseline GCR shift.

b) Long Term.

Figure 3  shows that the up-leg in the Central England Temperature  has an annual absolute temperature Millennial cycle amplitude of at least 16.5 +/- degrees C. Using the Millennial cycle lengths of Figure 2 at least that same amount of future cooling as from the 990 AD high (2004 equivalent) to the Little Ice age is probable by the winters of 2,680-2700 +/-. The exact pathway from the 2003/4 Millennial temperature  high to the 2700 +/-low cannot be determined, but I have high confidence in the general trend. 

Policymakers may wish to note the following possible effects on earth’s climate for this long cooling cycle.  Climate in the Northern Hemisphere in particular will be more variable. From time to time the jet stream will swing more sharply North – South. with more northerly extreme heat waves, droughts and floods and more hard winters with more early fall and late spring frosts. A cooler world with lower SSTs usually means a dryer world. Thus droughts will be more likely in for example east Africa with possible monsoon failures in India. In California the PDO will mean less rainfall with more forest fires in the south. However in the Cascades and Northern Sierras snowpack could increase since more of the rain could occur as snow. In Europe cold winters and cool cloudy summers will be more frequent .There will be a steeper temperature gradient from the tropics to the poles so that violent thunderstorms with associated flooding and tornadoes will be more frequent in the central USA.  In the USA too hurricanes may strike the east coast with greater frequency in summer and storm related blizzards more common in winter.  

7 The Rules of the Game - Energy Sources, Population Demographics and Sustainability.

The human species population level varies much like the slime mold Physarum polycephalum - we seek out and eat our carbon based food which was derived from the photosynthesis of solar energy. There are inter and intra species battles for the living space and its derived  Energy needed for survival. Humanity contends with all other species including COVID 19 and its variants in a Darwinian struggle for lebensraum.

Agricultural monocultures based on chemical fertilizer and insecticides have already decimated bird populations in the northern hemisphere.  Rosenberg et al 2019 in "Decline of the North American Avifauna" (21) says: "Integration of range-wide population trajectories and size estimates indicates a net loss approaching 3 billion birds, or 29% of 1970 abundance ...Steep declines in North American bird populations parallel patterns of avian declines emerging globally.” The latest WWF report (21) states:

 "The Living Planet Report 2022 is a comprehensive study of trends in global biodiversity and the health of the planet. This flagship WWF publication reveals an average decline of 69% in species populations since 1970. While conservation efforts are helping, urgent action is required if we are to reverse nature loss." 

Food insecurity, starvation, global poverty and income disparity increases  threaten the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. Cross border migration is already out of control across the Rio Grande into the USA, from West Africa via Libya to Europe, out of Syria and also across the English channel. Loss of wildlife habitat to human habitation, cattle-ranching and ocean overfishing have accelerated species extinctions worldwide.

Modern industrial civilization, especially in large Megacities, cannot function for long without continuous adequate power and water supply, and functional global food and basic resource supply chains. The Lebensraum  war in Ukraine has given us a preview of wars  yet to come. The UNEP, IPCC and UNFCCC consensus” scientific community’s unwarranted focus on future CO2 levels, and global warming mitigation has  led to “net zero” energy policies being adopted by most Governments. Mainstream Media, in particular the BBC, NGOs and leading left- wing politicians have rushed to promote this  unnecessary,  quasi-religious non -science. Reality has dictated that after only a few months of war many European nations have been forced to abandon their plans to move rapidly away from fossil fuels.

Individual Governments, whether democratic or dictatorial have had to decide where and how they will draw the line between accommodation for other species and natural ecosystems and food supply, poverty reduction, economic development and consumer consumption levels. In the UK immigration policy led to Brexit  In the USA the de facto open border policies of the Biden administration have become possibly the deciding factor in the Mid-term Elections and the object of bitter political battle.

The unnecessary proposed rapid transition to non- fossil fuels created  an enormously expensive obstacle in the way of the effort to attain a modern, ecologically viable ,sustainable global economy and functional International Political System. How is Putin's drive for Lebensraum to be stopped without a nuclear exchange. What are the current rules of the Darwinnian  Lebensraum game to be and who will enforce them?

References.

1, https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt
2.Fairbridge. R .and Sanders.J. in Climate. Rampino et at al Eds. pp 452,453, 458 The Suns Orbit A.D.750 -2050.  Van Rostrand Reinhold Co. (1987)
3. Eschenbach. The thunderstorm thermostat hypothesis how clouds and thunderstorms control the earths Temperature E&E https://doi.org/10.1260/0958-305X.21.4.201  (2010) 
4.Eschenbach. W  (2020)  https://whatsupwiththat.com/2020/01/07/drying-the-sky 
5. https://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/Humlum O  https://www.climate4you.com/ NOAAA ESRL /HadSSTgl
6. Humlum O  https://www.climate4you.com/ NOAAA ESRL /HadSSTgl
7Clim. Past, 8, 765–786, 2012 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-765-2012
8. Lean,J.L Estimating Solar Irradiance Since 850 CE Earth and Space Science.5. 2018
9.Roth,R & Joos E  A reconstruction of  radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene 14 and CO2     records:Clim.Past,9,1879-1909,(2013)
10. Humlum.O  https://www.climate4you.com/ Central England Temperatures.
11.https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
12.https://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/
13.https://micpohling.wordpress.com/2007/03/30/math-how-much-co2-by-weight-in-the-atmosphere/
14. Stallinga, P.  Comprehensive Analytical Study of the Greenhouse Effect of the Atmosphere. Atmospheric and Climate   Sciences, 10, 40-80 (2020)
15.Miskolczi. The greenhouse effect and the infrared radiative structure of the earth's atmosphere. Development in Earth Science Volume 2 (2014)
16. https://www.academia.edu/81698830/about experimental-proof-of-the-greenhouse-effect 
17. Zaichun Zhul et al Greening of the Earth and its drivers. Nature Climate Change Vol 6 April (2016)
18. Svalgaard,2020 https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2010/2010.02370.pdf
19.Kitiashvili.I.N. Using Synoptic Magnetograms for Long-Term Solar Activity Forecast  https://orcid.org/0000- 0003-4144-227
20.Rosenberg et al 2019 in "Decline of the North American Avifauna"doi: 10.1126/science.aaw1313. Epub 2019 Sep 19
21.Living Planet Report  https://livingplanet.panda.org/en-US/

 




The End of the UNFCCC/IPCC Global Warming Meme is Confirmed by the Arctic Sea Ice .
Publish: Tue 07 Jun 2022 - 1:29 PM
Website: Climatesense-norpag
Twitter: @norpag
Source: View Original

The End of the UNFCCC /IPCC Global Warming Meme is Confirmed by the Arctic Sea Ice.

1.The Millennial Global Temperature Cycle.

Planetary orbital and solar activity cycles interact and combine to drive global temperatures. Because of the thermal inertia of the oceans there is a 12+/- year delay between these drivers and global temperature. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is 0.058% by weight. That is one 1,720th of the whole atmosphere. It is inconceivable thermodynamically that such a tiny tail could wag so big a dog. The Oulu galactic cosmic ray count provides a useful proxy for driver amplitude. 

The statements below are supported by the Data, Links  and Reference in parentheses  ( ) at     https://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2021/08/c02-solar-activity-and-temperature.html

A Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point (MSATP) was reached  in 1991/2. The  correlative temperature peak and Millennial  Temperature Turning Point (MTTP ) was in 2003/4 as also reported in Nature Climate Change Zhang, Y., Piao, S., Sun, Y. et al. Future reversal of warming-enhanced vegetation productivity in the Northern Hemisphere. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2022) .(Open Access)

Because of the thermal inertia of the oceans the UAH 6.0 satellite Temperature Lower Troposphere  anomaly was seen at  2003/12 (one Schwab cycle delay) The Northern Hemisphere temperature anomaly peaked at 2003/12 at  0.37.There has been no net NH warming for 18 years. Earth passed the peak of a natural Millennial temperature cycle trend in 2004  and will generally cool until 2680 – 2700.

        Fig. 1: Trends in mean autumn air temperature at 2 m north of 25° N during the                       periods 1982–2003 and 2004–2018.

a, Trends in autumn (September–November) temperature during 1982–2003. b, Trends in autumn temperature during 2004–2018. c, Trends in mean autumn temperature anomalies during both periods. The air temperature data were obtained from the CRU Time Series 4.0. The black line in c indicates the mean autumn temperature over the whole region north of 25° N (NH), and the blue and red lines indicate the average autumn temperature over the CAs and WAs, respectively. *P < 0.1; **P < 0.05; ***P < 0.01. The black line in b represents the extent of the cooling areas. Maps in a,b were generated using ArcGIS (version 10.7). Copyright © 1995–2019 Esri.

 Short term deviations from the Millennial trends are driven by ENSO events and volcanic activity.

       Fig 2 Correlation of the last 5 Oulu neutron cycles and trends with the Hadsst3 temperature          trends and the 300 mb Specific Humidity. (28,29)         

The Oulu Cosmic Ray count shows the decrease in solar activity since the 1991/92 Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point and peak There is a significant secular drop to a lower solar activity base level post 2007+/- and a new solar activity minimum late in 2009.The MSATP at 1991/2 correlates with the MTTP at 2003/4 with a 12/13 +/- year delay.  In Figure 2(5) short term temperature spikes are colored orange and are closely correlated to El NinosThe hadsst3gl temperature anomaly at 2037 is forecast to be + 0.05. 

 2.Arctic Sea Ice Trends.

Fig. 3 Mean Sea Ice Extents 1979 - 2020  and years  2022 and 2004. 

The current sea ice extent is a reflection of current arctic temperature integrated with  previous years.
Sea ice declined from orange1979 -1990 to lowest Blue line 2011- 2020 av. as temperatures warmed and modifying ENSO events occurred.. By 06/04/2022 ,truncated blue line, ice extent has   recovered close to that of 2001 - 2010 , Black line, which is also very close to the 2004 lower Green line  extent for the same day of that year.

                      Fig.4 Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2022 -2015 and 2011,2010,2006 and 2005

On day 156 of 2022 Arctic Sea Ice was the 12th lowest since 1979 and 822,000 sq kms greater than the 21st century El Nino related peak in 2016,lowest Blue Line.

3. Arctic Sea ice volume. 
Average Arctic sea ice volume in August 2022 was 6,400 km3. This value is the 10th lowest on record for August, about 1,400 km^3 above the record set in 2012.

4. Greenland Surface Mass Balance.


The accumulated SMB on August 31  2022 is the 6th lowest  on record and is compatible with a Millennial sea level peak and turning point as suggested in section 4.

4. Sea Level.

 


                              Fig. 5 Sea Level   https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

It can now be plausibly conjectured that a Millennial sea level peak  will follow  the Millennial solar activity peak at 1991/92 . This may occur at a delay of one half of the fundamental 60 year cycle  i.e at 2021/22.   see Fairbridge and Sanders 1987 (18).The rate of increase in sea level from 1990 - present was 3.3 millimeters/year. The net rate of increase from Sept 13th 2019 to  Jan 13/ 2022 in Figure  5  was 2.3mm/year. A possible Sea Level Peak and Turning Point may have been reached at Jan 13 2022 with an anomaly of  102.2 mm. Sea level fell to  100.8 mm by Feb 21st 2022. 

The conjecture will be strengthened if the fall continues for the rest of the year as is suggested by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) May 2022


                                                         Fig.6  30 Day moving SOI

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña (cooling) while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño.(warming) Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions. Values at May 01 2022 indicate a possible strong  La Nina in Sept/Oct this year  leading to cooling. Conversely ,the solar activity of cycle 25 is increasing towards a 2024/5 peak with possible warming - Fig.2 D. We will see which trend dominates the fall 2022 sea ice minimum.    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean&pacific=SOI

5. Basic Science Summary.

The anthropogenic CO2 Radiative Forcing concept on which the climate models’ dangerous warming forecasts are based is inappropriate for analyzing atmospheric temperature changes. Solar sourced energy flows in and out of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone provide the net negative feedback which has kept the earth within a narrow temperature range for the last 600 million years. The effects on temperature and climate of major meteorite strikes, periods of flood basalt outpourings , major volcanic eruptions and ENSO events are superposed on this solar sourced background. 

Most importantly the models make the fundamental error of ignoring the long- term decline in solar activity and temperature which will follow  the Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point and activity peak which was reached in 1990/91 as shown in Figure 2. above.   The UNFCCC Renewable Energy Targets in turn are based on model forecast outcomes which now appear disconnected from any possible reality.

The global temperature cooling trends from 2003/4 – 2704 are likely to be broadly similar to those seen from 996 – 1700+/- (Fig3,23,24 ) From time to time the jet stream will swing more sharply North – South. Local weather in the Northern Hemisphere in particular will be generally more variable with, in summers more northerly extreme heat waves, droughts and floods and in winter more early fall and late spring frosts.

6. Energy Sources, Population Demographics and Sustainability.

Modern industrial civilization, especially in large Megacities, cannot function for long without continuous adequate power supply, and functional global food and basic resource supply chains. The 2021 Texas freeze killed about 200 people. Long lines for food and water provided a red-flag warning of the present dangers of a cooling world. The war in Ukraine has given us a preview of future trends which were already underway. After only a few months of war nations are forced to abandon their rapid move away from fossil fuels. Food insecurity, starvation, global poverty and income disparity increases  threaten the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. Cross border migration is out of control across the Rio Grande into the USA, and from West Africa via Libya to Europe and across the English channel. Loss of wildlife habitat to human habitation, cattle-ranching and ocean overfishing have accelerated species extinctions worldwide. Agricultural monocultures based on chemical fertilizer and insecticides have already decimated bird populations in the northern hemisphere.  Rosenberg et al 2019 in "Decline of the North American Avifauna" (39) says: "Integration of range-wide population trajectories and size estimates indicates a net loss approaching 3 billion birds, or 29% of 1970 abundance ...Steep declines in North American bird populations parallel patterns of avian declines emerging globally.”

  Zaichun Zhul et al 2016 (36) in Greening of the Earth and its drivers report “a persistent and widespread increase of growing season integrated Leaf Area Index (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area from 1982 - 2009. ………. CO2 fertilization effects explain 70% of the observed greening trend.” Policies which limit CO2 emissions or even worse sequester CO2 in a quixotic attempt to greenwash or mitigate these natural cycles would decrease agricultural food production and are antithetical to the goals of feeding the increasing population and bringing people out of poverty. The tropical rain forests and tropical oceans are the main source of the atmosphere's water vapor and the rainfall essential to life and agriculture on land. Potable and agricultural water supplies are now competing and stretched to their limits in many areas because of the demographics of global population increase. Temperature limits and targets as set in the Paris accords to ameliorate future temperatures are in practice useless when formulating policies relative to adaptation to the actual real world problems. These require more local inputs for particular coastlines, different major river basins and mountain range limited ecosystems.

The UNEP, IPCC and UNFCCC “consensus” scientific community’s unwarranted focus on future CO2 levels, and global warming mitigation via “net zero” energy policies has been adopted by most Governments, Mainstream Media, NGOs and leading politicians as the basis for climate and energy policy. Individual Governments will now decide where and how, given their different political systems and demographics, they will draw the line between accommodation for other species and natural ecosystems and food supply costs, poverty reduction, economic development and consumer consumption levels.

Humanity contends with all other species including COVID 19 and its variants in a Darwinian struggle for lebensraum. During the last major influenza epidemic world population was 1.9 billion. It is now 7.8 billion+/. The establishment science “consensus" that a modelled future increase in CO2 levels and not this actual fourfold population increase is the main threat to civilization has no empirical basis. The cost of the proposed rapid transition to non- fossil fuels would create an unnecessary, enormously expensive. obstacle in the way of the effort to attain a modern ecologically viable sustainable global economy. We must adapt to the most likely future changes and build back smarter when losses occur.



   
    




The Solar Activity - Global Cooling Trackers - April . 2022
Publish: Fri 25 Feb 2022 - 4:27 PM
Website: Climatesense-norpag
Twitter: @norpag
Source: View Original


The Solar Activity - Global Cooling Trackers - April.  2022


1. The Solar Activity - Global Temperature Correlation.

         Fig.1.Correlation of the last 5 Oulu neutron count Schwab cycles and trends with           the Hadsst3 temperature trends and the 300 mb Specific Humidity. (28,29)         see References  in parentheses ( ) at https://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2021/08/c02-solar-activity-and-temperature.html

The  Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point and Activity Peak  was reached in 1991.  Earth passed the peak of a natural Millennial temperature cycle in the first decade of the 21st century and will generally cool until 2680 – 2700. 

Because of the thermal inertia of the oceans the correlative UAH 6.0 satellite Temperature Lower Troposphere  anomaly was seen at  2003/12 (one Schwab cycle delay) and was + 0.26C.(34) The temperature anomaly at 2022/03 was +0.26C (34).There  been no net global warming for the last 20 years. The Oulu Cosmic Ray count shows the decrease in solar activity since the 1991/92 Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point and peak There is a significant secular drop to a lower solar activity base level post 2007+/- and a new solar activity minimum late in 2009.The MSATP at 1991 correlates with the MTTP at 2003/4 with a 12/13 +/- year delay.  In Figure 1(5) short term temperature spikes are colored orange and are closely correlated to El Ninos. The had sst3gl temperature anomaly at 2037 is forecast to be + 0.05. 

2. Arctic Sea Ice. 

Arctic sea ice reached its maximum extent for the year, at 14.88 million square kilometers (5.75 million square miles) on February 25. The 2022 maximum was the tenth lowest in the 44-year record.




                                                            Fig.2 Arctic Sea Extent   (NSIDC)



   Arctic sea ice extent for day 132  2022 was the thirteenth lowest on record for that day of any year.


                                       

3.Arctic Sea ice volume.

Average Arctic sea ice volume in April 2022 was 23,000 km3. This value is the 9th lowest on record for April,  about  2,300 km^3 above the  record set in 2017.  

 See Data at: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/#:~:text=February%202022%20Monthly%20Update,mean%20value%20for%201979%2D2021.

 4.Sea Level

 


                              Fig. 3 Sea Level   https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

It can now be plausibly conjectured that a Millennial sea level peak  will follow  the Millennial solar activity peak at 1991/92 . This may occur at a delay if one half of the fundamental 60 year cycle  i.e at 2021/22.  Fairbridge and Sanders 1987 (18).The rate of increase in sea level from 1990 - present was 3.4 millimeters/year. The net rate of increase from Sept 13th 2019 to Jan. 03 2022 in Figure  3 was 2.3mm/year. If sea level begins to fall  by end 2022 the conjecture will be strengthened.

5. Solar Activity Driver and Near term Temperatures

An indicator of temperatures for 5 - 6 months ahead is provided by the SOI graph.




                                                             Fig.4  30 Day moving SOI

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña (cooling) while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño.(warming) Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions. Values at May 01 2022 indicate a possible strong  La Nina in Sept/Oct this year  leading to cooling. Conversely , the solar activity of cycle 25 is increasing towards a 2024/5 peak with possible warming. We will see which trend dominates  September's  sea ice extension  and volume minima.

 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean&pacific=SOI

Basic Science Summary 

The global temperature cooling trends from 2003/4 – 2700 are likely broadly similar to or probably somewhat colder than those seen from 996 – 1700+/- in Figure 5.(.3) From time to time the jet stream will swing more sharply North – South. Local weather in the Northern Hemisphere in particular will be generally more variable with, in summers occasional more northerly extreme heat waves, droughts and floods  and in winter more southerly unusually cold snaps and  late spring frosts. 

The IPCC -UNFCCC  "establishment" scientists  deluded first themselves, then politicians,  governments, the politically correct chattering classes and almost the entire UK and US media into believing that anthropogenic CO2  and not the natural Millennial  solar activity  cycle was the main climate driver. This led governments to introduce policies which have wasted trillions of dollars in an unnecessary and inherently  futile  attempt to control earth's temperature by reducing CO2.

Forecasts  will  be updated here as appropriate. To review the detailed data and the references  on which this cooling paradigm is based see the links below:

A :  http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2021/08/c02-solar-activity-and-temperature.htm

 Net Zero Threatens Sustainable development Goals. see References  in parentheses ( )

B : http://www.ijaos.org/article/298/10.11648.j.ijaos.20210502.12    The Impact of CO2,H2O and other Greenhouse Gases on Equilibrium Earth Temperatures

C : https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03098.pdf   Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases

Solar "activity" Cycles.

Earth’s climate is the result of resonances and beats between the phases of cyclic processes of varying wavelengths and amplitudes. At all scales, including the scale of the solar planetary system, sub-sets of oscillating systems develop synchronous behaviors which then produce changing patterns of periodicities in time and space in the emergent temperature data.

Solar " activity"   is the main driver of global temperatures at Millennial scales.  The Oulu Galactic Ray Count number integrates changes in Solar Magnetic field strength, Total Solar Insolation , Extreme Ultra Violet radiation, Interplanetary Magnetic Field strength, Solar Wind density and velocity, Coronal Mass Ejections, proton events, and  the geomagnetic Bz sign.  Changes in the GCR neutron count ("solar activity marker) then modulate cloud cover and thus albedo. (Iris effect)

 The periodicities pertinent to current estimates of future global temperature change fall into two main categories:

a) The orbital long wave Milankovitch eccentricity, obliquity and precession cycles. These control the glacial and interglacial periodicities and the amplitudes of the corresponding  global temperature cycles. 
b)  Solar activity cycles with multi-millennial, millennial, centennial and decadal time scales. 

 The most prominent solar activity/temperature  cycles  are : Schwab-11+/-years ; Hale-22 +/-years ; 3 x the Jupiter/Saturn lap cycle  60 years +/- :Gleissberg 88+/- ;  de Vries - 210 years+/-; Millennial- 960-1020 +/-;

Fig.5 (Fig 3) Northern Hemisphere 2000 year temperature reconstruction and a Millennial Temperature Turning Point. (MTTP). (23,24)

Because of the data quality, record length and methods used, the NH Christiansen et al 2012 series was selected as the "type reconstruction" to represent the NH trends. (22) The de Vries, Maunder, Sporer and Wolf minima are noted. Important volcanic cooling events are marked with a V.  An MTTP  occurs at about 990. The Millennial cycles are asymmetric with a 700+/- year down-leg and a 300 +/- year up-leg.

Fig 6 (Fig.4) The NRLTSI2 Solar Activity - CET Relationship 1600- Present (25,26,27)

In Fig.6 the Roth & Joos Cosmogenic Index (CI) is used as the emergent proxy for the solar activity driver of the resulting emergent global and NH temperature data.

The CI designation here integrates changes in solar magnetic field strength, TSI, EUV, IMF, Solar wind density and velocity, CMEs, proton events, the BZ sign and changes in the GCR neutron count which modulates cloud cover and thus albedo. 

 The effect on observed emergent behaviors i.e. global temperature trends, of the combined effect of these solar and GCR drivers will vary non-linearly depending on the particular phases of the eccentricity, obliquity and precession orbital cycles at any particular time.

Figure 6 (4) shows an increase in CI of about 2 W/m 2 from the Maunder minimum to the 1991 activity peak. This increase, together with the other solar "activity" variations modulate the earth’s temperature and albedo via the GR flux and varying cloud cover.

The emergent temperature time series trends of the combined orbital, solar and GCR drivers also reflect turning points, changes of state and important threshold effects created by the interactions of the underlying physical processes. These exogenous forcings are also simultaneously modulated by changes in the earth’s magnetic field and length of day.

The temperature increase since the 1680s is due to the up- leg in the natural solar " activity" Millennial cycle as shown by Lean 2018 "Estimating Solar Irradiance Since 850 AD" (ibid). Figure 6 (4) also shows the correlation between the CI driver and the Central England Seasonal Temperatures. (27). The 1650 – 1700 (Maunder), 1810 - 20 (de Vries/Dalton), and the 1890-1900 (Gleissberg) minima are obvious. The Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point (MSATP) at 1991 correlates with the Millennial Temperature Turning Point (MTTP) at 2003/4 with a 12/13 +/- year delay because of the thermal inertia of the oceans. 
The CET in Figure 6 (4)shows that this up-leg in the CET has an annual absolute temperature Millennial cycle amplitude of at least 16.5 +/- degrees C. Using the Millennial cycle lengths of Figure 5 (3) at least that same amount of future cooling from the 2004 high is probable by the winters of 2,680-2700 +/-. These temperature changes correlate very well with the changes in energy flow from the sun shown in Figure 7 C (5) without any measurable effect of C02 levels.

Fig 7 (5) Correlation of the last 5 Oulu neutron count Schwab cycles and trends with the Hadsst3 temperature trends and the 300 mb Specific Humidity. (28,29)

The Oulu Cosmic Ray count shows the decrease in solar activity since the 1991/92 Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point and peak There is a significant secular drop to a lower solar activity base level post 2007+/- and a new solar activity minimum late in 2009.The MSATP at 1991 correlates with the MTTP at 2003/4 with a 12/13 +/- year delay because of the thermal inertia of the oceans. In Figure 7(5) short term temperature spikes are colored orange and are closely correlated to El Ninos. The Millennial pattern can be projected forwards to 2037. The global temperature cooling trends from 2003/4 – 2700 are likely to be broadly similar to or probably somewhat colder than those seen from 996 – 1700+/- in Figure 5.(3). From time to time the jet stream will swing more sharply North – South. Local weather in the Northern Hemisphere in particular will be generally more variable with, in summers occasional more northerly extreme heat waves, droughts and floods  and in winter more southerly unusually cold snaps and  late spring frosts. 

Appendix - C02 

The "consensus"  IPCC models make the fundamental error of ignoring the long- term decline in solar activity and temperature following the Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point and activity peak which was reached in 1990/91 as shown in Figure 1 (5)The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is .058% by weight. That is one 1,720th of the whole. It is inconceivable thermodynamically that such a tiny tail could wag so big a dog. See in particular Refs B and C

The whole COP 26 Net Zero campaign is founded on the flawed assumptions and algorithms which produced the IPCC- UNFCCC model forecasts of coming dangerous temperature increases. Stallinga 2020 (4) concludes: " The atmosphere is close to thermodynamic equilibrium and based on that we...…… find that the alleged greenhouse effect cannot explain the empirical data—orders of magnitude are missing. ……Henry’s Law—outgassing of oceans—easily can explain all observed phenomena.” CO2 levels follow temperature changes. CO2 is the dependent variable and there is no calculable consistent relationship between the two. The uncertainties and wide range of out-comes of model calculations of climate radiative forcing (RF) arise from the improbable basic assumption that anthropogenic CO2 is the major controller of global temperatures. Miskolczi 2014 (5) in “The greenhouse effect and the Infrared Radiative Structure of the Earth's Atmosphere “says "The stability and natural fluctuations of the global average surface temperature of the heterogeneous system are ultimately determined by the phase changes of water.”





COP 26: Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
Publish: Mon 01 Nov 2021 - 4:12 PM
Website: Climatesense-norpag
Twitter: @norpag
Source: View Original

Never in the field of human history has so much complete nonsense been spoken at one place by so many. At COP 26 apocalyptic forecasts and imaginary impossible non -solutions to a non existent problem provided a cacophony of Blah, Blah ,Blah, Blah, Blah as Greta correctly said or as Johnson said "Humanity has long since run down the clock on climate change. It's one minute to midnight on that doomsday clock and we need to act now,"

The West's Main Stream Media notably the BBC, Guardian, NYT, Washington Post, NBC ,ABC, CBS,PBS and the US Cable networks have been the greatest propagators of this blizzard of misinformation. They have produced a generation of scared and psychologically disturbed teenagers and green fanatics who believe that the world has no future if fossil fuels continue to be used.

The whole COP 26 Net Zero campaign is founded on the flawed assumptions and algorithms which produced the IPCC model forecasts of coming dangerous temperature increases.  A very large majority of the consensus establishment  climate scientists have succumbed to a virulent infectious disease - the CO2 Derangement Syndrome. Those afflicted  by this syndrome  present with a spectrum of symptoms. First is the abandonment of any consideration of the thermodynamics of  energy flows, the different energy densities of the different energy sources  or the extreme difficulty of transitioning from the reliable high density power of f0ssil fuels to the diffuse inconstant power of solar and wind systems or the entropy losses inherent in suggested hydrogen systems.  Critical thinking capacity is badly degraded.  Intellectual hubris, confirmation bias, group think, the messiah complex and a need to feel at once powerful and at the same time morally self-righteous caused those worst affected to delude first themselves, then politicians,  governments, the politically correct chattering classes and almost the entire UK and US media that anthropogenic CO2 was the main climate driver. This led governments to introduce policies which have wasted trillions of dollars in a quixotic and futile  attempt to control earth's temperature by reducing CO2 emissions.

There is also a total inability to recognize the most obvious Millennial and 60 year  emergent cyclic patterns which are trivially obvious in the astronomic data , and in solar activity and drive earth's  temperature with a delay caused by the oceanic temperature inertia.

Here is the Abstract of my paper at

 http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2021/08/c02-solar-activity-and-temperature.html

Abstract

This paper begins by reviewing the relationship between CO2 and Millennial temperature cycles. CO2 levels follow temperature changes. CO2 is the dependent variable and there is no calculable consistent relationship between the two. The uncertainties and wide range of out-comes of model calculations of climate radiative forcing arise from the improbable basic assumption that anthropogenic CO2 is the major controller of global temperatures. Earth’s climate is the result of resonances and beats between the phases of cyclic processes of varying wavelengths and amplitudes. At all scales, including the scale of the solar planetary system, sub-sets of oscillating systems develop synchronous behaviors which then produce changing patterns of periodicities in time and space in the emergent data. Solar activity as represented by the Oulu cosmic ray count is here correlated with the Hadsst3 temperatures and is the main driver of global temperatures at Millennial scales. The Millennial pattern is projected forwards to 2037. Earth has just passed the peak of a Millennial cycle and will generally cool until 2680 – 2700. At the same time, and not merely coincidentally, the earth has now reached a new population peak which brought with it an associated covid pandemic, and global poverty and income disparity increases which threaten the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. During the last major influenza epidemic world population was 1.9 billion. It is now 7.8 billion+/. The establishment science "consensus" that a modelled future increase in CO2 levels and not this actual fourfold population increase is the main threat to human civilization is clearly untenableThe cost of the proposed rapid transition to non- fossil fuels would create an unnecessary, enormously expensive. obstacle in the way of the effort to attain a modern ecologically viable sustainable global economy.  We must adapt to the most likely future changes and build back smarter when losses occur.   

The effect on temperature of any further increase in CO2 is immeasurably small. There is no CO2 caused climate crisis. see : https://arxiv.org/pdf/2103.16465.pdf

For other posts on this topic scroll down through

https://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com


."


Net Zero threatens Sustainable Development Goals
Publish: Thu 19 Aug 2021 - 2:49 PM
Website: Climatesense-norpag
Twitter: @norpag
Source: View Original

 

Abstract

This paper begins by reviewing the relationship between CO2 and Millennial temperature cycles. CO2 levels follow temperature changes. CO2 is the dependent variable and there is no calculable consistent relationship between the two. The uncertainties and wide range of out-comes of model calculations of climate radiative forcing arise from the improbable basic assumption that anthropogenic CO2 is the major controller of global temperatures. Earth’s climate is the result of resonances and beats between the phases of cyclic processes of varying wavelengths and amplitudes. At all scales, including the scale of the solar planetary system, sub-sets of oscillating systems develop synchronous behaviors which then produce changing patterns of periodicities in time and space in the emergent data. Solar activity as represented by the Oulu cosmic ray count is here correlated with the Hadsst3 temperatures and is the main driver of global temperatures at Millennial scales. The Millennial pattern is projected forwards to 2037. Earth has just passed the peak of a Millennial cycle and will generally cool until 2680 – 2700. At the same time, and not merely coincidentally, the earth has now reached a new population peak which brought with it an associated covid pandemic, and global poverty and income disparity increases which threaten the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. During the last major influenza epidemic world population was 1.9 billion. It is now 7.8 billion+/. The establishment science "consensus" that a modelled future increase in CO2 levels and not this actual fourfold population increase is the main threat to human civilization is clearly untenableThe cost of the proposed rapid transition to non- fossil fuels would create an unnecessary, enormously expensive. obstacle in the way of the effort to attain a modern ecologically viable sustainable global economy.  We must adapt to the most likely future changes and build back smarter when losses occur.   

 Net Zero threatens Sustainable Development Goals

 CO2 and Temperature

The mass of the atmosphere is 5.15 x 1018 tonnes. (1) The mass of atmospheric CO2 in 2018 was approximately 3 x 1012 tonnes. (2). Jelbring 2003  (3) in The “Greenhouse Effect as a Function of Atmospheric Mass “ says

“…the bulk part of a planetary GE depends on its atmospheric surface mass density..”

Stallinga 2020 (4) concludes: " The atmosphere is close to thermodynamic equilibrium and based on that we...…… find that the alleged greenhouse effect cannot explain the empirical data—orders of magnitude are missing. ……Henry’s Law—outgassing of oceans—easily can explain all observed phenomena.” CO2 levels follow temperature changes. CO2 is the dependent variable and there is no calculable consistent relationship between the two. The uncertainties and wide range of out-comes of model calculations of climate radiative forcing (RF) arise from the improbable basic assumption that anthropogenic CO2 is the major controller of global temperatures.

Miskolczi 2014 (5) in “The greenhouse effect and the Infrared Radiative Structure of the Earth's Atmosphere “says "The stability and natural fluctuations of the global average surface temperature of the heterogeneous system are ultimately determined by the phase changes of water.” Seidel and Da Yang 2020 (6) in “The lightness of water vapor helps to stabilize tropical climate” say These higher temperatures increase tropical OLR. This radiative effect increases with warming, leading to a negative climate feedback" The Seidel paper is based on model simulations.

Dinh et al 2004 (7)  in “Rayleigh-Benard Natural Convection Heat Transfer: Pattern Formation, Complexity and Predictability” made large scale experiments and numerical simulations based on the Navier- Stokes and energy equations to capture and predict the onset of, and pattern formation in Rayleigh-Benard thermal convection systems heated from below.

Eschenbach 2010 (8) introduced “The Thunderstorm Thermostat Hypothesis - how Clouds and Thunderstorms Control the Earth’s Temperature”. Eschenbach 2020 (9) in https://whatsupwiththat.com/2020/01/07/drying-the-sky  uses empirical data from the inter- tropical buoy system to  provide a description of this system of self-organized criticality in which the energy flow from the sun into and then out of the ocean- water interface in the Intertropical Convergence Zone  results in a convective  water vapor buoyancy effect and a large increase in  OLR This begins when ocean temperatures surpass the locally critical sea surface temperature to produce Rayleigh - Bernard convective heat transfer.

Figure 1 One day's Solar Energy Record (9 ibid)

The short-term energy flows involved in this process provide the negative feedback which has been the earth's natural thermostat since the Cambrian. This mechanism is further elucidated by Mulmenstadt J. Salzmann M. et al 2021 “An underestimated negative cloud feedback from cloud lifetime changes” (10 ) says “As the atmosphere warms, part of the cloud population shifts from ice and mixed- phased (cold) to liquid (warm) clouds. Because warm clouds are more reflective and longer lived, this phase change reduces the solar flux absorbed by the earth and constitutes a negative feedback.)

Hansen et al NASA 1981 in “Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide” (11) reviewed the data bases, algorithms and forward projections of six simple GCMs says:

"The global warming projected for the next century is of almost unprecedented magnitude. On the basis of our model calculations, we estimate it to be 2.5°C for a scenario with slow energy growth and a mixture of non-fossil and fossil fuels…… the predicted global warming for a given CO2 increase is based on rudimentary abilities to model a complex climate system with many nonlinear processes." 

The Scientific Report of the1985 UNEP organized Villach meeting (12) said:

"..... unequivocal, statistically convincing detection of the effects of changing CO2 and trace gas levels on climate is not yet possible.” yet, based on this report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was set up, to examine the human contribution to global warming.

The First IPCC Assessment Report 1990 - Policymaker Summary of Working Group I science section (13) stated: " ...The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more." In spite of this lack of empirical evidence the 1992 Rio meeting produced the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Agenda 21 (14). Agenda 21 was designed as an action plan with the aim of keeping greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that was supposed to prevent dangerous man-made global warming. The IPCC AR5 SPM says in Footnote 16 page 16 (15): No best estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity can now be given because of a lack of agreement on values across assessed lines of evidence and studies.” The claim was nevertheless made that the UNFCCC actions proposed in Agenda 21 can control temperature by controlling CO2 levels.  

Fyfe et al 2016 in "Making sense of the early 2000s warming slowdown" (16) say: "Newly identified observational errors do not, however, negate the existence of a real reduction in the surface warming rate in the early twenty-first century relative to the 1970s–1990s. Hansen et al 2018 in “Global Temperature in 2017” (17) said "However, the solar variability is not negligible in comparison with the energy imbalance that drives global temperature change. Therefore, because of the combination of the strong 2016 El Niño and the phase of the solar cycle, it is plausible, if not likely, that the next 10 years of global temperature change will leave an impression of a ‘global warming hiatus.”

 

Astronomical and Solar Activity Cycles

 

Earth’s climate is the result of resonances and beats between the phases of cyclic processes of varying wavelengths and amplitudes. At all scales, including the scale of the solar planetary system, sub-sets of oscillating systems develop synchronous behaviors which then produce changing patterns of periodicities in time and space in the emergent data. It is essential that the scale and granularity of the space- time data base selected for analysis be appropriate to the problem under investigation.

Fairbridge and Sanders 1987 pp 452,453, 458 (18) in “The Suns Orbit A.D.750 -2050.” provided the key commensurability relationships of planetary orbits and lap periodicities.  They regard the Saturn Jupiter Lap cycle of 19.859 years as "the pulse of the solar system." The added influence of Uranus and the other planets results in a synchronized system controlled by emergent combined astronomical and solar activity periodicities of 3 x 19.859   = 60 +/- years. and 16 or 17 x 60 = 960 - 1020 years. Three times the Uranus Saturn Jupiter lap periodicity = 953.2 years.

 Stefani et al 2019 (19) in "A Model of a Tidally Synchronized Solar Dynamo" focusses on the Schwab 11.0 +/- year alignment periodicities of the tidally dominant planets Venus Earth and Jupiter. The main emergent dynamo modes are dipole fields oscillating with a 22.14 period - the Hale cycle.

 


Fig. 2 Greenland Ice core derived temperatures and CO2 from Humlum 2016 (20)

Fig.2 shows that Earth has passed the warm peak of the current Milankovitch interglacial and has been generally cooling for the last 3,300 years. The millennial cycle peaks are apparent at about 10,000, 9,000, 8,000, 7,000, 2,000, and 1,000 years before now.  
Climate, and in particular precipitation, is dominated during the Holocene mainly by the Obliquity modulated by the Precession. J. H. C. Bosmans et al 2015 (21)"Obliquity forcing of low-latitude climate"   shows that obliquity induced changes in the summer cross-equatorial insolation gradient explain obliquity signals in low latitude paleo climate records more usefully than the classical 65 degree north insolation curve alone. Yi Liu et al 2015 (22) in "Obliquity pacing of the western Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone over the last 282,000 years "   " ... shows that the western Pacific ITCZ migration was influenced by combined precession and obliquity changes. The obliquity forcing could be primarily delivered by a cross-hemispherical thermal/pressure contrast, resulting from the asymmetric continental configuration between Asia and Australia in a coupled East Asian–Australian circulation system. "

The periodicities pertinent to current estimates of future global temperature change fall into two main categories:

a) The orbital long wave Milankovitch eccentricity, obliquity and precession cycles and 

b)  Solar activity cycles with possibly multi-millennial, millennial, centennial and decadal time scales.

  


 Fig.3 Northern Hemisphere 2000 year temperature reconstruction and a Millennial Temperature Turning Point. (MTTP). (23,24)

Because of the data quality, record length and methods used, the NH Christiansen et al 2012 series was selected as the "type reconstruction" to represent the NH trends. (22) The de Vries, Maunder, Sporer and Wolf minima are noted. Important volcanic cooling events are marked with a V. (23) An MTTP  occurs at about 990. The cycles are asymmetric with a 700+/- year down-leg and a 300 +/- year up-leg.

 Solar Activity and Temperature Correlations

 

Fig 4 The NRLTSI2 Solar Activity - CET Relationship 1600- Present (25,26,27)

In Figure 4 the Roth & Joos Cosmogenic Index (CI) is used as the emergent proxy for the solar activity driver of the resulting emergent global and NH temperature data.

The CI designation here integrates changes in solar magnetic field strength, TSI, EUV, IMF, Solar wind density and velocity, CMEs, proton events, the BZ sign and changes in the GCR neutron count which modulates cloud cover and thus albedo. 

 The effect on observed emergent behaviors i.e. global temperature trends, of the combined effect of these solar and GCR drivers will vary non-linearly depending on the particular phases of the eccentricity, obliquity and precession orbital cycles at any particular time.

Figure 4 shows an increase in CI of about 2 W/m 2 from the Maunder minimum to the 1991 activity peak. This increase, together with the other solar "activity" variations modulate the earth’s temperature and albedo via the GR flux and varying cloud cover.

The emergent temperature time series trends of the combined orbital, solar and GCR drivers also reflect turning points, changes of state and important threshold effects created by the interactions of the underlying physical processes. These exogenous forcings are also simultaneously modulated by changes in the earth’s magnetic field and length of day.

The temperature increase since the1680s is due to the up- leg in the natural solar " activity" Millennial cycle as shown by Lean 2018 "Estimating Solar Irradiance Since 850 AD" (ibid). Figure 4 also shows the correlation between the CI driver and the Central England Seasonal Temperatures. (27). The 1650 – 1700 (Maunder), 1810 - 20 (de Vries/Dalton), and the 1890-1900 (Gleissberg) minima are obvious. The Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point (MSATP) at 1991 correlates with the Millennial Temperature Turning Point (MTTP) at 2003/4 with a 12/13 +/- year delay because of the thermal inertia of the oceans. 
The CET in Figure 4 shows that this up-leg in the CET has an annual absolute temperature Millennial cycle amplitude of at least 16.5 +/- degrees C. Using the Millennial cycle lengths of Figure 3 at least that same amount of future cooling from the 2004 high is probable by the winters of 2,680-2700 +/-. These temperature changes correlate very well with the changes in energy flow from the sun shown in Figure 4 without any measurable effect of C02 levels.

“Fig 2 The correlation of the last 5 Oulu neutron cycles and trends with the Hadsst3 temperature trends and the 300 mb Specific Humidity. (28,29)

The Oulu Cosmic Ray count shows the decrease in solar activity since the 1991/92 Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point and peak There is a significant secular drop to a lower solar activity base level post 2007+/- and a new solar activity minimum late in 2009.The MSATP at 1991/2 correlates with the MTTP at 2003/4 with a 12/13 +/- year delay. In Figure 2 short term temperature spikes are colored orange and are closely correlated to El Ninos. The hadsst3gl temperature anomaly at 2037 is forecast to be + 0.05. ”.
 Temperature Predictions

 Loeb et al 2018 in  "Changes in Earths Energy budget during and after the "Pause" in Global Warming"(30) provided an important observational database from 1998 - 2018.This

showed that a reduction in global mean reflected short wave top of atmosphere flux in the three years following the hiatus resulted from decreased low cloud cover which added to the 2016 El Nino temperature spike.

Figure 5 also predicts SST3gl and Specific Humidity trends from 2022 – 2037. (Blue and Purple dashed lines) The secular change in the Solar Activity to a lower base level after 2007 projects to 2021. The SST3gl general decline trend from 2021 to 2037 is here projected as the reverse of the increase from  1983 – 2004 with the cycle 24 peak projected  at 2028 and the cycle 25 peak at 2037.

Kitiashvili,I 2020 (31)  estimated that Solar Cycle 25 will start after the 2020 solar minimum  and will be weaker than Cycle 24.The maximum of Cycle 25 solar activity should be in 2024/25 with a sunspot number of about 50 +/- 15. The correlative HadSST3gl anomaly is 0.05C. in 2037.The intervening solar activity minimum would be at 2031.

Other climate measures show longer delays from the 1991 Solar Activity Turning Point. The arctic sea ice area and volume minima turning point delay is 21 yrs at 2012 which is about one Hale cycle. (32) A possible Millennial sea level peak and turning point might was reached in September 2019+/-. There has been no net sea level rise from then up to March 2021(33) This delay, 28/30 years, is close to one half of the fundamental 60 year cycle. Fairbridge and Sanders 1987 (Ibid)

As shown in references 1-10 above, the anthropogenic CO2 Radiative Forcing concept on which the climate models’ dangerous warming forecasts are based is inappropriate for analyzing atmospheric temperature changes. Solar sourced energy flows in and out of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone provide the net negative feedback which has kept the earth within a narrow temperature range for the last 600 million years. The effects on temperature and climate of major meteorite strikes, periods of flood basalt outpourings and major volcanic eruptions are superposed on this solar sourced background. The sample lengths in the IPCC reported model studies are too short. The models retrofit from the present back for only 100 – 150 years when the currently most important climate controlling, largest amplitude, "solar activity" cycle is millennial. The relevant system for comparison should include the entire Holocene.

Most importantly the models make the fundamental error of ignoring the very probable long- term decline in solar activity and temperature following the Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point and activity peak which was reached in 1990/91 as shown in Figure 5. The correlative UAH 6.0 satellite TLT anomaly at the MTTP at 2003/12 was + 0.26C. The temperature anomaly at 2021/12 was + 0.21 C. (34) .These RSS/MSU global satellite temperature at 2004/3 was +0.5684 and at 2021/11 +0.5405. These satellite data set shows that there has been no net global warming for the last 18 years.  As shown above, the Renewable Energy Targets in turn are based on model forecast outcomes which now appear highly improbable. Science, Vol 373,issue 6554 July2021 in”Climate panel confronts implausibly hot models” (35) says “Many of the world's leading models are now projecting warming rates that most scientists, including the modelmakers themselves, believe are implausibly fast. In advance of the U.N. report, scientists have scrambled to understand what went wrong and how to turn the models...... into useful guidance for policymakers. “It's become clear over the last year or so that we can't avoid this,” says Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.”

The global temperature cooling trends from 2003/4 – 2704 are likely to be broadly similar to those seen from 996 – 1700+/- in Figure 2. From time to time the jet stream will swing more sharply North – South. Local weather in the Northern Hemisphere in particular will be generally more variable with, in summers occasional more northerly extreme heat waves droughts and floods  and in winter more southerly unusually cold snaps and  late spring frosts.

 Population and Sustainability

  Zaichun Zhul et al 2016 (36) in Greening of the Earth and its drivers report “a persistent and widespread increase of growing season integrated Leaf Area Index (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area from 1982 - 2009. ………. CO2 fertilization effects explain 70% of the observed greening trend.” Policies which limit CO2 emissions or even worse sequester CO2 in a quixotic attempt to mitigate these natural cycles would decrease agricultural food production and are antithetical to the goals of feeding the increasing population and bringing people out of poverty

Additionally, the tropical rain forests and tropical oceans are the main source of the atmosphere's water vapor and the rainfall essential to life and agriculture on land. Potable and agricultural water supplies are now competing and stretched to their limits in many areas because of the global population increase.

 Spillias et al 2021 state " the energy systems built to power the future will play a critical role in determining the extent to which we are able to achieve most, if not all, the prescribed development goals. (37)  

The UNFCCC, IPCC' and National Governments’ reliance on Renewable Energy Targets to control CO2 and mitigate climate change by transitioning away from fossil fuels is at odds with Diaz,S. et al The Science policy forum  " Set ambitious goals for biodiversity and sustainability (38) which says that Global biodiversity policy is at a crossroads. 

"First, multiple goals are required because of nature's complexity, with different facets—genes, populations, species, deep evolutionary history, ecosystems, and their contributions to people—having markedly different geographic distributions and responses to human drivers…………. As a result, there is no single goal based on any one facet that would, if realized, guarantee by itself that the necessary outcome for the other facets would be achieved”. These differences mean that global temperature limits and targets as set in the Paris accords to ameliorate future temperatures are in practice useless when formulating policies relative to adaptation to the actual real world problems. These require more local inputs for particular coastlines, different major river basins and mountain range limited ecosystems.

 Modern industrial civilization, especially in large Megacities, cannot function for long without continuous adequate power supply, and functional global food and basic resource supply chains.The 2021 Texas freeze killed about 200 people. Long lines for food and water provided a red-flag warning of the present dangers of a cooling world. Not coincidentally, the Earth has now reached a new population peak which brought with it an associated covid pandemic, and global poverty and income disparity increases which threaten the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. Cross border migration is out of control across the Rio Grande into the USA, and from West Africa via Libya to Europe and across the English channel. Loss of wildlife habitat to human habitation, cattle-ranching and ocean overfishing have accelerated species extinctions worldwide. Agricultural monocultures based on chemical fertilizer and insecticides have already decimated bird populations in the northern hemisphere.  Rosenberg et al 2019 in "Decline of the North American Avifauna" (39) says: "Integration of range-wide population trajectories and size estimates indicates a net loss approaching 3 billion birds, or 29% of 1970 abundance ...Steep declines in North American bird populations parallel patterns of avian declines emerging globally.”

The UNEP, IPCC and UNFCCC “consensus” scientific community’s unwarranted focus on future CO2 levels, and global warming mitigation via “net zero” energy policies has been adopted by most Governments, Mainstream Media, NGOs and leading politicians as the basis for climate and energy policy. At COP 26 Individual Governments will decide where and how, given their different political systems and demographics, they will draw the line between accommodation for other species and natural ecosystems and poverty reduction, economic development and consumer consumption levels.

Humanity contends with all other species including COVID 19 and its variants in a Darwinian struggle for lebensraum. During the last major influenza epidemic world population was 1.9 billion. It is now 7.8 billion+/. The establishment science “consensus" that a modelled future increase in CO2 levels and not this actual fourfold population increase is the main threat to civilization has no empirical basis. The cost of the proposed rapid transition to non- fossil fuels would create an unnecessary, enormously expensive. obstacle in the way of the effort to attain a modern ecologically viable sustainable global economy. We must adapt to the most likely future changes and build back smarter when losses occur.

 Acknowledgements

 I would like to thank my wife Hilary for the adaptation of figures 3 – 5 for publication.

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