ABC News Watch
An Honest Climate Debate
And Then There's Physics
Australian Climate Madness
Bishop Hill
Bob Tisdale - Climate Observations
C3 Headlines
Chew The Fat
Climate Audit
Climate Change Dispatch
Climate Common Sense
Climate Conferences - Heartland
Climate Conversation Group
Climate Depot
Climate Edinburgh
Climate Etc.
Climate Lessons
Climate of Sophistry
Climate Physics
Climate Realists
Climate Resistance
Climate Sanity
Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr.
Climate Skeptic
Clive Best
Co2 Insanity
CO2 Science
Deep Climate
Dr. Roy Spencer, PhD
Dr. Tim Ball
Enthusiasm, Scepticism and Science
Errors in IPCC climate science
Geoffchambers's Blog
Global Climate Scam
Global Warming Hoax
Global Warming or is it Global Cooling?
Global Warming Science
Gore Lied
Green Hell Blog
Greenhouse Bullcrap
Greenie Watch
Grumpy Denier
Gust Of Hot Air
Harmless Sky
Heliogenic Climate Change
Ice Age Now
James Taylor - Forbes
Jennifer Marohasy
Jo Nova
Junk Science
Kiwi Thinker
Minnesotans For Global Warming
Musings from the Chiefio
News Busters
No Cap And Trade
No Frakking Consensus
No Tricks Zone
NOAA/ESRL Trends in CO2
Not A Lot Of People Know That
Notes on a Scandal
Planet Gore
Plants Need CO2
Polar Bear Science
Principia Scientific International
Real Science
Really Real Climate
Roger Pielke Jr.'s Blog
Talking About the Weather
Tallbloke's Talkshop
The Air Vent
The Australian Climate Sceptics
The Big Green Lie
The Carbon Sense Coalition
The Cosmic Tusk
The Global Warming Challenge
The Global Warming Policy Foundation
The Hockey Schtick
The Inconvenient Skeptic
The IPCC Report
The Next Grand Minimum
The Reference Frame
The Resilient Earth
The Science of Doom
The SPPI Blog
The View From Here
Tom Nelson
Tory Aardvark
Troy's Scratchpad
Trust, yet verify
VK3BBRs Blog
Watts Up With That

Bob Tisdale
Cato Institute
Climate Central
Climate Resistance
Climate Review
Climate Scam
CO2 Is Green
CO2 Science
Coyote Blog
Dr David Evans
Friends of Science
Galileo Movement
Global Stewardship
I Love Carbondioxide
MagicJava TV
Michael Coffman
Minnesotans For Global Warming
No Cap And Trade Group
Not Evil Just Wrong
Plants Need CO2
Question The Hype
Stefan Molyneux
Steve Goreham
Taxing Air
The Heartland Institute
The Independent Institute
Tom Harris ICSC
Weather Action TV

Richard Lindzen, PhD
Roy Spencer, PhD

The Reference Frame

Supersymmetric world from a conservative viewpoint

CMS: a new excess indicating a novel \(2.9\TeV\) boson
Publish: Tue 15 Mar 2022 - 6:39 AM
Website: The Reference Frame
Twitter: @lumidek
Source: View Original

This is a super short text about a fresh CMS paper at the LHC,
Search for new heavy resonances decaying to \(WW\), \(WZ\), \(ZZ\), \(WH\), or \(ZH\) boson pairs in the all-jets final state in proton-proton collisions at \(\sqrt{s} = 13\TeV\)
which found some excesses for the masses of the new boson around \(2.1\TeV\) and \(2.9\TeV\), respectively. Each of them is quantified to be a respectable 3.6 sigma locally and 2.3 sigma globally. See e.g. Figure 3 on page 9 (11 of 19 in the PDF) for some charts.

What is cool is that in January, I reported another excess at \(2.9\TeV\) and pointed out that I had known about 2-3 previous ones, too.

This concentration of evidence near this mass is rather interesting although it is not enough to be classified as a discovery yet (which would still be rather likely to be a spuriour discovery for a while, before the evidence gets really strong).

Aside from an excess two blog posts ago, I saw another paper with some interesting deviations in the package of about 20 LHC preprints that I quick-reviewed in the recent week. I am mentioning this fact because "the high number of papers I have looked at" means that you do expect some of them to have a "relatively high global significance" just by chance because the word "global" in the previous quotes isn't quite global – it is not "globalized" with respect to all possible channels or papers yet.

Genealogy: instead of Ukrainian, my German percentage jumped
Publish: Mon 14 Mar 2022 - 1:50 PM
Website: The Reference Frame
Twitter: @lumidek
Source: View Original

The amount of data and (usually heartbreaking) news to follow in recent weeks was high and the war in Ukraine has also allowed me to learn something new about the maternal side of my ancestors. That was relevant because for decades, I have known that my maternal grandmother was born in... Kiev... although she moved to Czechia as a kid.

So am I really 1/4-Ukrainian, I have been asking again? For years, the answer – mostly from my mother – was a resounding No. And after some extra details, this answer seems valid to me, assuming some biological identity. But the percentage of my German DNA went up.

OK, my parents are M.M. and J.M., née Ko. My father's father (paternal grandfather) was František M., a worker in Škoda Works. His wife, my grandma whom I remember well, had the name Jiřina M. but what is more impressive was her maiden name. She was born as Miss Führer (Führerová with the Czech feminine suffix). How many of you can brag about this name? Everyone has always considered her Czech but she had to get the impressive surname in some way, right? Was her father, my great grandfather, already fully German or 1/2-German? Or something else?

My maternal side is more accessible to me today. My grandfather (my 1/4) was František Ko., of course I remember him well, an academic painter and a high school teacher. His father (my great grandfather whom I never met) worked in the railways, I believe.

It's my mother's mother's (my 1/4) line that got much more detailed hours ago. Helena Ko. was born in Kiev as Helena Glos[ová]. That name Glos doesn't sound too Czech but the map indicates that Czechia is actually a top spot where it can be found. Is it "other Slavic" or "Germanic"? It can be both. In German, Glos may be a variation of Klaus. In Polish, however, Glos may arise independently as the Polish word for "voice" ("hlas" in Czech). For some reason, Germany, Poland, and Czechia are accompanied by Jordan where Glos is widespread, probably for other reasons.

My mother's mother's father (my 1/8) was called Josef Glos (*1874 Lipník Upon Bečva) and he traded flour. His brothers Anton and Jan were a judge and a bureaucrat, respectively. Josef (and Anton's, Jan's) Glos' father was also called Josef Glos (my 1/16). Josef Glos Jr (my 1/8) got married with Theresia Schorcht (*1881, my 1/8). Now, Theresia Schorcht doesn't quite contribute 1/8 to my German fraction. Her father (my 1/16) was Richard Schorcht, a decorative smith (old Czech: "cizelér") who moved from Germany to Austria's Czechia (German genes); but he married Miss Lapáčková from Komárov near Hořovice (my 1/16) which sounds as Czech as you can get.

My great grandfather worked in a bank (not sure whether that job overlapped with the flour trading) and was sent to its Kiev subsidiary around 1909-1917 when the 3 kids were born, Yasha, Helena, and Věra. Yasha is the only male one. It sounds totally East Slavic but it may really be just a Ukrainian-Russian variation of Joachim (CZ: Jáchym); update: he had just "Josef" in his documents, was always called Jáša, and later in his life, by someone, Jožka. Helena was my grandma. Ironically, between 1917-1920, right after the Bolshevik Coup, my great grandfather worked in... Moscow as a... sales representative. The very fact that Lenin allowed sales representatives sounds surprising to me. ;-) Theresia died in 1954, her husband Josef Glos in 1964 in Prague.

My great grandfather Josef Glos also had an illegitimate son Rudolf in Prague's Lesser Town (Rudolf's mother's identity is a mystery) whose lifestyle looks cool, and my great grandfather Josef Glos apparently maintained a lover in Moscow whom he regularly visited.

OK, that maternal side looks like an upper society, more than what I thought. While my paternal grandparents were a worker and a maid, respectively (the first occupations), I can actually find some nontrivial landlords there, too. You can see that Theresia Schorcht (my 1/8) was 1/2-German, after her father, so this contributes 1/16 to my German fraction. I suspect that roughly 1/16 is also added by both Glos and Führer (which would make me roughly 3/16 German) but I will probably remain ignorant about all these details.

Vertex algebra of one free boson
Publish: Sat 12 Mar 2022 - 12:09 PM
Website: The Reference Frame
Twitter: @lumidek
Source: View Original

LHC excesses: this new CMS paper studied four-jet final states (I looked at 5-10 other papers in recent days). There are two events at \(8\TeV\) as the (very high) four-jet invariant mass, producing a 3.9/1.6 sigma local/global excess. The dijet mass has a peak at \(950\GeV\), just like in this ATLAS search, and the local/global excess (see Figure 11) is 3.6/2.5 sigma!
Before his channel is going to return to his series about the foundations of quantum mechanics, Edwin Steiner posted a new video on the vertex algebra of one free boson two days ago.

It should be fun to watch.

He announces to cover:

0:00 Introduction
1:40 Bosonic field
4:00 Preview of topics
9:56 What is a field?
16:50 Periodic compactification of space
21:44 The action
27:14 The principle of stationary action
30:15 Equation of motion
38:36 Conclusion

Of course, there are the standard issues of "free field theory on a spacetime" – the action or the Lagrangian, the Hamiltonian, the equivalence of free fields to an infinite-dimensional harmonic oscillators, the spectrum, commutators of fields, Green's functions, some subsets.

But then there are all the special things that are relevant (not only) for string theory: the conformal transformations to the cylinder, the equivalence of the path integral on a punctured plane and that of a cylinder, the state-operator correspondence and the construction of vertex operators for given states and vice versa, changing the boundary conditions, twist fields, the calculation of the ground state energy (the sum of integers is -1/12), the calculation of the dimension of the twist field operator, T-duality and Buscher duality (electromagnetic duality on the world sheet, a chiral part of the spacetime reflection), the partition sum on a torus, modular invariance, open strings, Neumann and Dirichlet boundary conditions, their T-duality, D-branes, and so on.

Of course, with this list, the length of the video would get way beyond the 39 minutes of Edwin's video. After all, a significant fraction of perturbative string theory – which I still consider a significant portion of the reliable machinery of string theory – is rather close to special topics involving a free boson.

Russia is destroying capitalism just like it's 1917
Publish: Sat 12 Mar 2022 - 7:15 AM
Website: The Reference Frame
Twitter: @lumidek
Source: View Original

The murderous behavior of the Russian government on the Ukrainian territory is the most heartbreaking aspect of the new rogue state's behavior since February 24th. But the internal changes in Russia are rapid and brutal, too. People have lost their basic freedoms, like the freedom to prefer peace over war (and many men's freedom not to fight in a useless war may be even worse), and the military dictatorship threatens everyone – and for something like one-half of the Russians, the threats are damn real.

On top of that, capitalism is ceasing to exist and Russia is switching back to a variation of communism.

First, on Saturday, February 26th, the third day of the war, the Moscow stock exchange decided not to open on the following Monday (during the first two days of the war, the dollar-based RTS index dropped from 1200 to 900; the ruble-based MOEX index dropped from 125 to 95). Two weeks later, the Russian stocks still cannot be traded. The probability is increasing that this situation will be permanent. Just the very fact that the even in the ruble basis, the index drops over 50% (?) on the first open day, would probably be so damaging to the public opinion that the authoritarian rulers will prefer to keep the stock exchange closed permanently (various global indices have written the Russian stocks off, as having zero or near-zero value). The central bank announced that the market won't open before March 21st, they are already delaying things by whole weeks.

Try to imagine that you are a normal pro-capitalist Russian dude who assumed that Russia was basically a capitalist country like others and who naturally owns a lot of Russian stocks (and if I were Russian, I would probably belong to this set).

Hundreds of foreign companies completely stopped their business in Russia (which affects imports to Russia, including components; exports from Russia; and production and services in Russia) and this boycott had to be expected. I think that the planners of the war worked inside a simple mental picture. Sure, there would be a new iron curtain but Russia can do without the West and its companies – Medvedev said it explicitly days before the full-fledged war started. After all, Russia may rely on China, the reasoning goes, which produces almost everything these days.

But is it really this simple? Needless to say, I think that this is a reasoning of a financially illiterate communist moron and one of my disappointments was to see how many of these communist morons operate in Russia, including the Russian government.

First of all, even the "Chinese loophole" is seriously flawed. Even if China could replace the West in "everything", which it cannot, it was still guaranteed that the ruble would weaken even relatively to the Chinese jüan. And indeed, the ruble dropped from 0.084 to 0.047 renmimbi in the recent month. So for Russians, it is massively more difficult to buy the Chinese phones and cars, too! A great majority of the Russian people who had just prepared barely enough money simply cannot buy what they have planned. I think that lots of the "capitalism and the West aren't needed" morons weren't capable of figuring even this simple point – the point that Russia won't be in the same situation as China because China isn't being boycotted (the Chinese subjects doing trade with Russia should be, that could make a really big difference).

Because the Western and similar companies stopped their operations, Russia immediately lost some products and services, components, and some millions of jobs have disappeared, too. Because the economy is interconnected and lots of companies require every single company in a list of suppliers to remain operational, this breakdown of the economic activity is going to spread further to the economy like a domino. The Kremlin is nearly silent about this ongoing economic catastrophe and when it is not, what is the solution? Let us just nationalize (i.e. steal) the foreign-owned companies which don't "work" now.

Two Russian women, by Ivan Mládek

Great. The Russian Federation has already turned into the most brutal criminal organization in the world. For example, its armed thugs came to the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, one in Energodar, and shot at it (obviously, this violates the Geneva Convention, it is a war crime). Roughly yesterday, when the Russian control seemed complete, the employees were told that the power plant now belonged to Rosatom (instead of the Ukrainian Energoatom). Cool! Why didn't they say that the 6 GW power plant suddenly belongs to Putin's daughter? (This nuclear power plant could cost about $50 billion to be built now, a nice theft, indeed.) With this kind of a thief's spirit, it is common sense that under its current or similar "leaders", Russia faces absolutely no moral obstacles before it steals any foreign assets it can steal, using an arbitrarily violent, criminal, or inhumane method. (I am pretty sure that if this insanity survives for months or years, it will have to be allowed outside Russia to shoot Russians without any repercussions, just like if they were any other overpopulated vermin in the forests. It is not clear to me how these criminals who are ready to do literally anything could still enjoy the civil rights as if they were human beings like us. They are clearly not. The probability that Russians will be useful instead of lethally dangerous for mankind is infinitesimal; they have already violated almost everything and can be trusted in nothing. I think it is clear that officially or unofficially, people will appreciate these facts and the only question will be about the safest and optimal method to clean the Earth from them.)

So it is reasonably likely that the criminal Russian "government" will steal all these foreign assets on the Russian territory and they will try to restore the "work" (when a bunch of thieves calls itself a "nation", they often use the word "nationalization" for their theft). People who want to "work" have the right to steal stuff from those who don't want to "work", the Russian "government" says (at least Putin could call himself a Caliph, like al-Baghdadi did). Needless to say, this way of talking is already taken straight from the Bolshevik 1917 playbooks. In the economy that works, it is not "just some work for its own sake" that matters. It is the damn profit and it is almost always a good thing. The companies sensibly interrupted their activities because they figured out that it was the less costly solution for them, it was the lesser evil. At this moment, their "work" would be loss-making, due to their crippled image in the larger markets that matter more, and due to the extra expenses needed to move the personnel or stuff between Russia and the world, and the increased expenses for the protection of their employees, plus the risk that what they will earn will be stolen by the petty criminals in the Kremlin, anyway. Also, the taxes they would pay in Russia would be largely used for destructive activities, possibly against themselves (or they could be held responsible for this funding of the Russian "government").

With their unmasked Bolshevik thinking, the Russian "leaders" don't seem to understand any of these basic things. They think that the "work for its own sake" is a good thing. But that is a difference between capitalism and communism. Capitalism encourages the cooperative work that normally brings benefits to both sides of a transaction, and therefore to the whole. Communism encourages "work" that a clueless, authoritarian, naive, corrupt, self-serving ruler (just one third party that shouldn't participate in the decisions at all) decides to be "the right thing" for naive ideological reasons. Capitalism has adjusted lots of the mechanisms in the economy which often produce just a small but positive profit margin and it works; lots of the competing companies and mechanisms that failed to make the profit had to stop the business, and this "creative destruction" was a good thing, too.

When a tiny elephant enters the room that is full of china, like Putin, all these fine balances are ruined. Even if they could emulate the fine economic flows that the profitable companies maintained a month ago, this ability won't last because there won't be a real market that constantly self-adjusts. The "government" doesn't actually know how to manage all these companies with their thousands of degrees of freedom in a changing world to "keep the whole thing useful". A communist government doesn't allow the "creative destruction". A communist government has to subsidize a huge fraction of the economic subjects and once the subjects find out that they can get something without the work, as a subsidy that the Kremlin decides is needed to "save the national economy", they are bound to abuse it. Communism is completely corrupt, rotten to the core. It just doesn't work and whoever hasn't gotten this elementary point is a financially illiterate moron stuck at the level of a retarded kid in the kindergarten.

In 1917 and even 1948, when various communist systems were taking over, the economy was simpler, it had much less structured chains of suppliers, a big portion of it were commodities (including the agricultural ones) and several standardized simple products, and these things were described by a relatively small number of degrees of freedom that could have been reasonably centrally planned. Communist countries didn't really give any "major innovation" to the world but they could partly emulate "what the capitalists were doing" so that the capitalism was only 5-20 years ahead. However, the agriculture has dropped to a small fraction of the GDP and the rest got extremely complex and sensitive (and demanding very good managers – selected after some nontrivial contests and achievements, not through ideological work – who are sometimes rightfully paid huge salaries). You just cannot easily transfer all these activities to central planners who couldn't even predict that even the Chinese products would become much more expensive for the Russians.

On top of that, the modern economy has much more effective methods to create imbalances. People know how to short sell things and although these capitalist activities are gradually banned in Russia as Russia is brutally quickly destroying its capitalist system, they can still be emulated in some informal ways. Also, the availability of mass communication makes it easier to spark panic buying and similar phenomena. In Kamchatka (in the Far East where lots of products are only brought by airplanes), people are stockpiling food and limits have already been established for the purchase of flour and some other things.

In a system that manipulates profits as well as prices, like the nightmare that the Russian "government" wants to build now, the automatic adjustments of prices and behaviors that prevent shortages are basically canceled, so shortages are bound to happen, just like they did during communism. That is also why the panic buying may be very rational in very many situations. But it is not just rational. Because these rumors act as self-fulfilling prophesies, the panic buying also has the effect of producing the shortages earlier, and producing more brutal shortages.

But in a modern economy including the pre-war Russian economy, the food is just a small portion of the GDP. The rest of the economy is almost impossible to govern centrally (especially not by the people who couldn't even see that 150,000 Russian soldiers couldn't have been enough for a Blitzkrieg in Ukraine), is also vulnerable towards stockpiling, and the stockpiling has an even more destructive effect because a typical complex product or service depends on many components or their suppliers. (Some of the shortages are guaranteed to cause problems globally, e.g. 2 Ukrainian companies produce 50% of the world's neon, and that is needed for chips, but the market economies still have ways to circumvent and adapt to these problems.) In effect, I find it extremely likely that after the hypothetical theft of all the foreign "means of production", Russia will only be capable of producing a very limited spectrum of products.

The expected 20% drop in the GDP in 2022 may be bad but it is not the worst thing. It is the medium- and long-term expectation for the GDP growth rate, it is the trend, that is more damning for Russia's future. Unless Russia restores the capitalist relationships in the bulk of its economy, including the protection of the ownership rights (and the rights of owners to do what they find appropriate with the assets, including the suspension of the activity when it doesn't add up), most of the pre-war Russian economy will be erased because most of the pre-war Russian economy sensitively depends on the fine capitalist self-adjusting mechanisms that are being bombarded these days, along with Ukraine. We may expect negative growth rates for many years.

Communism and dictatorship are terrible things because they allow the completely wrong people – clueless people, evil people, or both – to control things that they shouldn't be influencing at all if the system were optimized to increase the satisfaction of the people. Russia is in the process of destroying its "brotherly" Ukraine and these pictures make us sick to our stomachs very directly. But somewhat less directly and less spectacularly, Russia is also destroying itself. Because of its aggressive invasion, we often compare Russia to the Third Reich but it won't be too accurate internally because Nazi Germany still worked as a "mostly capitalist economy with a somewhat inflated role played by the capitalists' personal relationships to the top Nazis". Internally, Russia is transforming into a hybrid of the Islamic State and North Korea and the more self-evident it will be that this is an extremely bad idea to elaborate upon, the more aggressive the evil and clueless people will be in harassing or expelling the Russians who have the ability to make Russia's future bright but they won't be given the opportunity to do so.

If the rest of the world accepts this self-destruction of Russia, it should also invent some ideas to absorb, exploit, and reward the Russians who are both skillful and ethically clean. The West has used lots of "soft sticks" but it simply needs to use some highly targeted "carrots", too.

Comparing real UA refugees to the fake Muslim ones
Publish: Thu 10 Mar 2022 - 6:45 PM
Website: The Reference Frame
Twitter: @lumidek
Source: View Original

Especially in 2015, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel shocked all sensible people in the West with her "we can do that" – meaning "we can just screw Europe by inviting and importing millions of Muslims into Europe, in order to give everyone a hard time". Virtually all these people were economic migrants, they have affected the societies largely negatively because most of them never had the intent to integrate (and the sometimes spectacular extra terrorist attacks were just a tip of an iceberg!), and there has been a huge campaign to force all EU member countries to swallow their fraction of the migrants.

These are supercute and apparently curious and eager to do useful things and it's not always like that but it may be more often than we think. Ukrainian TV stations started to broadcast in Czechia, some regions created special Ukrainian classrooms, others integrated the kids, and there are afternoon clubs for the kids and other things.

The 2015 migration wave was huge and 1.3 million people requested the asylum in our continent. We were afraid of additional years like that, or even more brutal ones, but those worries didn't materialize. Fast forward to 2022. The new migration wave was started by Vladimir Putin, not Angela Merkel, whose quirky acts are even further beyond our control than Merkel's used to be. Just in the two weeks, some 2.5 million Ukrainians fled the country (twice the number of the refugees in the whole famous 2015 wave) and they are damn real refugees. Ukrainian cities are being bombarded by murderous savages from an upsized copy of the Islamic State (in particular, from the Zombie Soviet Union), most of the businesses and trade don't work, there is a serious risk that inhabitants in sieged cities run out of water, electricity, food (those things are already happening in Mariupol and elsewhere), or they lose the ability to escape. I won't discuss the terrible things that are taking place in Ukraine. Whoever hasn't noticed these almost unprecedetend heartbreaking stories will think that those are just some analogies of his dumb conspiracy theories and pre-2022 talking points – and I have already seen that quite a lot of TRF readers whom I have considered decent humans have nothing to do with decent humans.

In 2015 and in the years after that, the EU national governments were pressured by the EU apparatchiks and many Western European leaders to take their tens of thousands of Muslims (or more) and it was clear that the actual goal of this was not to help but for everyone to signal their obedience to the SJWs of the world, including George Soros personally. You can see that things work very differently when the refugees are real and they actually need some help.

The first difference is that these people are actually saving their skin so they are not planning where they want to go. The fake Muslim "refugees" were "saving their lives" by sharing the belief that the only good destination is "true Germany" somewhere in North Rhine-Westphalia and by carefully moving up to this destination. ;-) On the other hand, the Ukrainian refugees are real ones, they are saving their skin, and they naturally go to the first country outside the invaded one, usually by trains or cars. What are these countries?

It's primarily Poland, with some 1.4 million new refugees. Even as a percentage, that approaches 4% of the population. Hungary, a neighbor of Ukraine, got over 200,000, and so did my Czech homeland (about 2%). Slovakia got some 150,000 (3%), Romania 85,000 (0.5%) and Moldoova 85,000 (3%). Russia got just 100,000 (0.07% of Russia's population), Belarus 765 (0.02%), and the median of Western European countries is something like 10,000 (0.1% or so).

As you can see, the percentages are vastly non-uniform. But there is another difference here. Unlike Germany after 2015, the countries that are absorbing these real refugees aren't whining and demanding pan-European quotas, either. It is almost unavoidable that in similar real emergencies that produce real refugees, the percentages are bound to be totally non-uniform. Anything that leads to uniform results isn't an emergency; it is a carefully designed social engineering plan to harm European countries whose masterminds like Mr Soros deserve roughly the same punishment as Mr Putin.

The third major difference is that unlike almost all the Muslims, many of the Ukrainian women actively say that they do want to fit in and sort of assimilate because that's what good refugees simply should try. As a package, the whole "lifestyle" and values in Ukraine+Russia sort of failed, and it's a good opportunity to try something else.

The Ukrainian refugees may choose the country to some extent. It may be attractive for some to go to a much richer countries (all EU countries are obviously richer than Ukraine, on the per capita basis, but some are vastly richer) but it may be a wrong idea because the very rich countries may treat the Ukrainians worse than garbage (which is what the Britons were said by many Ukrainian refugees to be doing).

One day ago, I saw the regional center that accepts the refugees in Pilsen (near the old socialist monstrous Prior mall). Over 700 new refugees go through this facility and there are roughly 15 such centers in Czechia. They have to wait for as much as 12 hours in Pilsen although the time was said to be just 3 hours a few days ago. One-quarter of the Ukrainians in Czechia go through the Prague facility, in the Congress Palace.

A day or two days ago, the government was self-confident that "we can manage that", especially when it comes to the housing capacities. Things already look a less certain now. The Ukrainians keep on arriving, the hotels already look too expensive for the regional governments (because it seems clear that our guests will be here for much more than a week), and some private volunteers are canceling their offers (and an even smaller number tries to get rid of the refugees who have already lived in their real estate: be sure that the co-existence is more likely to produce some tension than the co-existence of two random Czechs). On the other hand, the Czech economy – with the unemployment rate around 3.5%, lowest in Europe – is absolutely thirsty for new workers and (unlike the Muslim migrants) many of the Ukrainians want to work. In Ukraine, many were working for $200 and in Prague, some of them may get $2,000 per month. The Czech numbers belong to another league and surely many people feel some excitement.

The "older" group of 100,000 Ukrainians in Czechia were basically guest workers or economic migrants. Now they're enriched by the extra 200,000 refugees and the community should better feel as a single one because the last thing we need is some internal tension in between migrants of the same ethnic group.

While this task is an extensive one and the number of refugees may triple according to some estimates, many people who organize it still feel that "this is the kind of task that we can still solve" and we don't really need to "get rid" of our Ukrainian guests and send them somewhere to Western Europe where they could be badly treated. In Czechia, it helps that they speak a Slavic language. In particular, it may be easier for the Ukrainian kids to learn Czech although I find it obvious that at least for months if not a year, we need to make things work – so Ukrainian speakers and texts must be everywhere. No one should be expected to speak Czech in a week, not even a few months, although I am pretty sure that many of these Ukrainian folks actually get capable of communicating in Czech after some months. The schools should not only allow Ukrainian but the Czech principals should learn the Ukrainian system, adapt to it, and take it as their starting point (although I believe that they may improve many things "locally"). The guest kids must be exposed to a minimum amount of chaos. And I think that the Czechs officials agree. They respect the 11-year mandatory schooling in Ukraine (instead of our 8-year-long elementary schools), the Ukrainian composition of subjects, and other things. It is the Czechs responsible for such things who must mainly learn and work hard, not 100,000 kids!

Note that in Czechia, over 50% of the refugees (100,000) are children, and 75% of the adults are female (75,000); yes, the rest, 25% (25,000), are male. The adult female-male gap is 50,000 people. So these 50,000 corresponding men may be somewhere in Ukraine, potentially preparing to join the conflict. The total number of refugees from Ukraine is about 10 times those in Czechia, so it is plausible that 500,000 Ukrainian men are in Ukraine, while the women and kids have left, and quite some fraction of these 500,000 men may have chosen a more risky residence than the women because they do plan to fight.

The other EU countries don't need to get any big fraction of the refugees. Sometimes, money is just enough and even these needs may be limited because most of the adult Ukrainians may very well be employed within a week and they won't really need any subsidies. Everyone who is doing some useful things – especially people who can build or invent some temporary housing (I mean something cheaper than fancy villas but better than the floor of the Kiev subway!) – should try to make an offer to the countries with the large number of refugees, and make their government pay for it. Aside from the housing, we may face shortages of some other things, things are evolving wildly.

Aside from the Covid hysteria, global warming hysteria, and some other overhyped or utterly non-existent problems, the war may have ended the stupid games to deliberately Islamize Europe. We really can't afford such artificial self-inflicted injuries now. The countries which take the largest numbers of the Ukrainian refugees – and not accidentally, the Visegrád Group (PL+HU+CZ+SK) is pretty much exactly the leading group – should get some financial support from the EU plus the assurances that we're working hard on our real refugee homework exercise – and we won't be bothered with homework exercises involving fake refugees in the future.